[NEWS IN-DEPTH] Analysis on latest security issues surrounding Korean Peninsula

[NEWS IN-DEPTH] Analysis on latest security issues surrounding Korean Peninsula


the Pentagon has officially announced
that a South korea-us joined air drill
set for later this month will be
conducted on a smaller scale than
previous years the move is widely seen
as part of efforts to make room for
nuclear diplomacy with North Korea as
nuclear negotiations between North North
Korea and the u.s. remain in a deadlock
and this while South South Korea waits
for North Korea’s response to its
proposal of sending a team to Mount
Kumgang resort to inspect South Korean
facilities there for a comprehensive
analysis on these latest developments
I’m now joined by dr. Zhang yup of this
hedgerow Institute welcome to the
program thanks for having me
so North Korea has once again strongly
lashed out at South korea-us joint
drills at the Vigilant ace air drills in
particular the u.s. however seemed quite
determined to carry on the drills as
usual but today announced that the drill
will be scaled back why
so in the past when it comes to the
joint military drills between Korea and
the United States it has two purposes
broadly first obviously exercise and
millet joint military drills and
training purposes and second the purpose
of joint military drill is messaging
messaging for South Koreans and
messaging for North Koreans for South
Koreans is the purpose is a reassuring
South Korean public that US commitment
to the Korean Peninsula is very strong
for North Korea that it has a deterrence
purpose and sending a message to North
Korea that if North Korea makes another
unnecessary vacations South Korea and
the United States ready to ready to
retaliate but this time that u.s. is in
the face of the negotiation with North
Korea the sending signal is very
complicated so United States I wanted to
send a message at the same time those
strong messages as often messages so
there is why this and the strong
messages in the in the beginning but
they soften the message later too
make a room for the diplomacy so
obviously North Korea would welcome the
scaling back of South korea-us drills
but how much do you think the move would
help in resuming the stalled Pyongyang
Washington nuclear talks so the purpose
of softened message is give North Korea
no excuses for avoiding the talks with
the United States so that means that
scaling down the joint military
derivative does not mean that North
Korea is going to come to the
negotiation soon like Sweden and earlier
this month so I think that this is going
to give some kind of excuse for North
Korea to use for coming back but but the
reason that North Korea has refused to
have sincere working-level negotiation
is very much different it’s not only
from the joint military drills between
u.s. and South Korea so it’s a weak
reason for North Korea to come back
meanwhile the South Korean government in
its second proposal to North Korea
regarding the Mount Kumgang resort has
expressed its will to send a team to to
mount kumgang fora for a check on the
South Korean of facilities their
expected reaction from North Korea since
the original message coming from North
Korea is from Kim jong-un himself so for
those korean officials now it’s going to
be very difficult to change the tone to
South Korea whether they are going to
accept that South Korea’s proposal or
not so I think even if South Korean
government is trying to re-engage North
Korea on this issue and trying to send
the team to discuss this matter in
person
but I believe that North Korea is very
determined to send a signal to South
Korea that they are not going to meet in
person so probably they are going to
reiterate that the process will be done
through document exchanges between the
Koreas so once again you expect North
Korea to reject South Korea’s offer I’m
sorry unfortunately I think they do be
the case
now the top US diplomat for East Asia
David Stillwell visited South Korea and
held a series of talks with his South
Korean counterparts and much attention
was drawn to whether he would bring up
the issue of Seoul Tokyo military Intel
sharing pact she sold me out but not
much was revealed on what they discussed
about Joo Sonia your thoughts so it is
very complicated situation now so the US
official position is that u.s. is not
mediate between its two allies mainly
because that mediating requested by
South Korea is that US has to influence
Japan so Japanese Japan should withdraw
its export control to a South Korea so
the South Korea will get excused for
reconsidering our decision to our
decision regarding ji soo Miah however
that mediating is not really mediating
from u.s. perspective it’s having us
having on a side over the South Korea
so it actually turning back to Japan so
it’s going to be very difficult to the
United States and second United States
know that this G somya issue and export
control issue is very closely linked to
the history issues and the domestic
politics of both Korea and Japan so even
if you have tried to engage both
countries they know that it’s going to
be very difficult for Korea and also
Japan to truly consider their original
position so that is why US wants to tell
Korea and Japan to reconsider the
positions that they have with regard to
the G Soumya but it’s difficult for them
to openly discuss this matter because of
the reasons that we just discussed
staying with G Sowmya the blue house has
said that the military pact will expire
on November 23rd as scheduled
unless Japan changes it stands on the
trade curves against South Korea and the
u.s. has largely facilitated the G somya
between Seoul and Tokyo so it’s no
secret that the US would be very
disappointed if
Sowmya actually expires on that date do
you expect some strong response or
actions from washington FG so Mia is
officially terminated so on August the
23rd when South Korean government
decided not to continue to own the ji
soo Miah the secretary compared of the
United States used the term
disappointment which was very strong
considering the alliance relations
between Korea and the United States and
that was kind of like warning that u.s.
US government wanted to raise because
they want South Korea to reconsider a
South Korean government decision to
expire the t Sonia so if RT so Mia is
going to be indeed expired on on the
November 23rd u.s. is going to probably
reiterate their disappointment like
August after August 23rd so they are
going to raise the kadai their concerns
with regard to the trilateral security
cooperation between Korea u.s. and Japan
and at the same time that they want to
continue the trilateral security
cooperation through other marriage-like
trilateral information sharing agreement
so-called Tisa but Tisa is much more
difficult and slow than g Soumya there
is why US is going to say after t Soumya
is indeed expired that they are good
they were disappointed by the decision
of South Korea Stilwell during his visit
to Seoul has also said that South Korea
has turned from a nation that received
aid from the US to now now to a strong
donor nation how do you interpret this
remark is it part of his strategy to a
pressure south on South Korea to pay
more on defense cost now that’s in the
same line of the talking points that
President Trump has used so far even
before he was elected as a president
president Trump kept reiterating that
South Korea is a rich country so why US
has to pay for the security provie
secretly provided by the United States
so so far when whenever he has a chance
that he kept mentioning the
why do we need to pay for this South
Korea needs to pay and Japan needs to
pay and special measures agreement is
not many countries has with the United
States is Korea Japan Germany and some
NATO countries so US has stationed
troops and military forces around the
world but not many countries were as
rich as South Korea or Japan so
president from president Trump’s point
of view it is okay that they can provide
the security in some countries in
elsewhere but South Korea and Japan
needs to pay so I think assistant
secretary stairwells message at the
airport is in the same line with the
President Trump and that means the US
government officials even though they
care for the alliance management they
have to report to the home president I
think that’s their dilemma
now besides still well as several more
top US officials has visited Korea or
will visit Korea next week and some
experts believe that one of the reasons
behind these top US officials chain of
visits to Seoul is also linked to the
agreement reached among several Asian
nations on the regional comprehensive
economic partnership or set which is
largely led by China your take on that
so the issues raised by US government
officer is whether South Korea is
sharing the concept of threat with the
United States United States basically
argue that China is the threat to the
u.s. national security and US allies and
us partners in the region should share
the concept of threat that is coming
from China but from our geopolitical
locations it is going to be very
difficult for South Korea to declare
that China is only threat we want to see
China as an opportunity as well so our
position is very difficult and we are in
the dilemma how far we can go with the
United States in terms of sharing the
concept concept of the threat
so us is kept urging South Korea and
other allies and partners to share its
its perception of the threat that is
coming from China so I think I’ve said
is one of the way the China is going to
mitigate the neighboring countries that
China is not a Chinese economic
opportunity
so maybe us purpose the purpose of the
US officers visit this time is to make
aware that China is a threat to the
United States
so you other countries should share that
kind of perception with the United
States now you’ve mentioned that
Washington would obviously be very
disappointed if G somya expires do we
need to be worried about the possible
crack on South korea-us alliance on top
of the G somya termination as well as
the defense cost-sharing negotiations
that look far from smooth sailing at the
moment yet there are there are some
concerns raised among observers on this
issue of alliance management so not only
G Soumya so maybe it’s the end of the
world
even though G somya expires there are
another way that we can cooperate with
the United States and once Korea’s
relations with the Japan improves that
there might be some way that we can
improve the relations in trilateral
security cooperation
however the cost-sharing issue is a very
critical at this juncture because now
South Korean public has very negative
feelings about u.s. pressure in
increasing the money in in a huge scale
and at the same time that US is urging
South Korea to consider the huge
increase in the amount of the
cost-sharing and if a president Trump is
going to say that if South Korea is not
paying enough then we might then us
might need to consider the size of the
US troops on the Korean Peninsula which
he has mentioned before during his
campaign so if he really indeed decides
to withdraw some of the US troops on the
Korean Peninsula size down the US troops
on the Korean Peninsula because of the
money that we have paid then it’s going
to be a big concern for the alliance man
from both countries now one quick
question before you go North Korean
leader Kim jong-un actually South
Korea’s national intelligence service a
few days ago has said that Kim jong-un
is seeking to meet with president Trump
before the year end how do you gauge the
possibility of that happening from North
Korean point of view especially from Kim
jong-un’s eye that meeting with the
president Trump would be the best way
for him to get something in those
Korea’s interest because at the working
level negotiations it’s going to be slow
and US government officials has very
firm position with regard to the
denuclearization process of North Korea
so like in Singapore the president Trump
has some kind of impromptu
decision-making process so for for Kim
for chairman Kim that it is in their
interest to meet directly with the
president Trump and somehow take
advantage of his weak position on North
Korea so I think that there is why we
our intelligence believe that North
Korean leader is seeking another meeting
with the president Trump before it’s too
late
because in next year president Trump’s
calories already packed with a campaign
for the re-election so I think before
president Trump of got too busy North
Korean leader wants to have another
meeting with the president Trump’s okay
so he can have something like sanctions
relief alright doctor well thank you for
your perspectives tonight thank you

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About Nicklaus Predovic

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